
——————————I. Summary——————————This file contains documentation for understanding the prediction market data used by the Good Judgment Project.——————————II. Background of Prediction Markets——————————Year 2: The prediction market in year 2 was a continuous double auction (CDA) market run by Lumenogic. The first group (“lum1”) did not receive training, and the second group (“lum2”) did receive training.  All participants worked independently.Year 3: There were several prediction market conditions in year 3.  The first market (“lum1”) consisted entirely of US citizens, which was not the case with the other Lumenogic markets (“lum2a” and “lum2”).  Participants in the “lum1” and “lum2a” markets worked independently. The “lum2a” market operated from the beginning of the third year until 2014-01-06.  At that point, participants were placed in teams.  This “lum2” market of teams ran from 2014-01-07 until the end of the third year.  These first three markets were CDA markets run by Lumenogic.  The fourth prediction market was run by Inkling.  This was a logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR) market with participants working independently.Year 4: All five prediction markets used in year 4 were LMSR markets run by Inkling. The control market was similar to the Inkling market in year 3. Participants did not receive training and worked independently of one another.  The other four prediction markets used batch auctions on the first day of an IFP to determine the price.  The “batch.notrain” market was similar to the control market (e.g., no training) except for this batch auction at the beginning of IFPs.  Top participants from year 3 who opted for prediction markets were placed in the “supers” market.  The similar condition for non-supers participants was the “batch.train” market. Participants in the “teams” market were placed on teams. ——————————III. Description of Folders and Files——————————

Transactions and Batch Orders: This folder contains prediction market files for transactions and batch orders.  The suffixes on the file names were described in the previous section. There are additional files unique to year 4, specifically batch auctions (e.g., pm_batch_orders.supers.yr4.csv).  The year 4 Inkling control market does not have a file for batch orders.
——————————IV. Description of Lumenogic Data——————————The columns in the data are fairly self-explanatory, but a few notes are in order with the transactions files.* Usernames have been removed from the original file.* Some of the operation types and column names were renamed from year 2 to year 3.  
* For non-conditional, binary questions, participants trade on only one answer option.* OpType, refers to the operation type.  Participants could have submitted orders, cancelled orders, or created agents.
* The type of trade is constructed by the “buy” and “long” columns: 	* Regular buy:  buy = TRUE,  long = TRUE	* Regular sell: buy = FALSE, long = TRUE	* Short sell:   buy = TRUE,  long = FALSE	* Buy back:     buy = FALSE, long = FALSE* Operations associated with agents include the following:	* AgentCreated/agentEnabled: generated when the user goes from manual trading to agent trading. The 'price' column contains the initial agent forecast.
	* AgentFcst: generated when the user modifies an existing agent's forecast, it is also used to restart an agent whose fuse has blown. The 'price' column contains the modified agent forecast.	* AgentDestroyed / agentDisabled: generated when the user switches back to manual trading, or when the user has retrieved (in the form of cash) all the cash and holdings from the agent, or when the market closes and the agent is automatically terminated.	* AgentCashXfer, AgentHldgXfer: When an agent is created, these variables record cash transfers and share/holdings transfers, respectively from the 'manual' account to the agent account.
	* AgentFuseBlown: generated when the agent's fuse is blown because the market trading price crosses the agent's forecast.
        * AgentConfig: Agent configurations, which appear in year 3. This was specified in the the following columns: Low.Fuse, Max.Bid, Min.Ask, High.Fuse, Min.Qty, Divest.Only.* The with.MM column refers to trades conducted with the market-maker.  This was typically used in the beginning of an IFP to get the market started.* The experience column is a user’s self-reported rating on a scale of 1 to 5 of their level of expertise on the IFP.
* Note that in year 2, the matching.Order.ID column repeats values for trades.  This format was admittedly not intuitive and was changed in year 3. 
* When submitting orders, participants in year 3 were asked about their beliefs on the true probability of the event, which is the “Tru.Belief” column.

——————————V. Description of Inkling Data——————————Most of the columns in the data are fairly straightforward, but a few things should be mentioned.* Usernames and comments have been removed from the original file.* Some of the column names changed from year 3 to year 4.  * For non-conditional, binary questions, participants trade on only one answer option.* Recall that in year 4, four of the five prediction markets initialized IFPs with a batch auction. * Negative values in the “spent” column correspond to sells.  In other words, the participant had gained money from the trade.
* When submitting orders, participants were also asked about their beliefs on the true probability of the event, which is the “probability estimate” column.